A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
